After three years into a war- exhausting billions of dollars, losing hundreds of thousands of lives, and displacing millions of families- the Russia-Ukraine war seems to be heading for a settlement.
Within days of Trump-Putin telephone talks, a high-level delegation from Russia and the USA is heading to Saudi Arabia to discuss the peace prospects between Russia and Ukraine—and, by extension, NATO and the EU. The U.S. delegation is led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. From Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, who previously served as Russia’s ambassador to the United States from 1998 to 2008, will be present.
There is significant unease among the USA’s European allies and Ukraine, who have received no invitation from the USA to witness the U.S.-Russia peace negotiation on the conflict. Ukraine, in particular, is concerned about being sidelined in negotiations that directly affect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The European nations, shocked and dismayed, are still grappling with the sudden shift in the U.S. stance on Ukraine, NATO, and Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron has convened an emergency meeting in Paris to discuss the situation surrounding the Ukraine war. The summit will include leaders from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, along with key figures such as the NATO Secretary-General and the President of the European Commission. They will also deliberate on the overall European security landscape after the U.S. government has openly distanced itself from giving long-term security guarantees to Ukraine and asked Europe to step up its spending to defend its borders. Europe, uncertain and unprepared for Trump’s breakneck diplomacy, fears that a U.S.-Russia deal might come at Europe’s expense. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has explicitly stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is not seen as a “realistic outcome” of any negotiated settlement with Russia. Hegseth also urged European allies to take primary responsibility for Ukraine’s security post-conflict.
While the Trump administration is very concerned with European security and believes that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia and Ukraine, and we also believe that it’s important in the coming years for Europe to step up in a big way to provide for its own defense
-JD Vance, Vice president USA at the Munich Security Summit
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making a strong case for no negotiations on Ukraine’s future without Kyiv’s direct involvement, asserting Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. He reached the UAE on Monday. The Ukrainian President is also expected in Saudi Arabia on February 19, with subsequent stops planned in Turkey. Zelenskyy’s visit occurs amidst ongoing U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia about ending the conflict in Ukraine, with Zelenskyy emphasizing his commitment to not recognizing any outcomes from those talks that bypass Ukraine’s direct involvement.
The direct phone call between the Presidents of the U.S. and Russia on February 12—which was their first known conversation since Trump’s return to the White House—marked a shift after years of diplomatic standoff between the two global giants. Both leaders have agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss not only Ukraine but also broader bilateral issues, aiming to reset ties or at least improve the diplomatic tone between the two countries.
NATO, including the U.S., has provided around $55 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the conflict’s onset. European NATO members are set to spend a record $380 billion on defense in 2024, reflecting increased military budgets to counter the threat from Russia and support Ukraine. The conflict has drained resources, with billions spent on military aid, reconstruction, and sanctions-related economic adjustments.
Both Russia and Ukraine face dire economic situations, while Europe and the U.S. have felt the impacts on energy prices, inflation, and global trade. Amidst the conflict, with no clear end in sight, Europe’s public opinion is also shifting, and leaders face pressure to end the war and work toward normalization.
After three years of conflict marked by significant human, economic, and political costs, there is palpable exhaustion among the involved parties—Europe, the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. With so much geopolitics involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, one must not expect a quick outcome and should be prepared for rounds of talks and negotiations. However, two things can be inferred at this point: First, President Trump is in no mood to keep U.S. resources hamstrung around the world, implying he would want a respectful U.S. withdrawal from the conflict. Secondly, whichever way the negotiations proceed, they will lead to a re-evaluation of NATO’s role, expansion policies, and its unconditional support from its crucial partner, the USA.